Hi everyone, happy “Dog Days” of summer to you. It’s been more than a little toasty in our Nation’s Capital, so I’m about to go get my Prius serviced and head up north to my Aunt’s Vermont farm house. We just bought a GPS unit to try and help avoid traffic snarls, and hope to best our record of getting up there with an average of 51.5 mpg. With our new low-rolling resistance tires and a tune-up, I think we’ve got a shot.
But there’s more going on than just my personal hybrid news. Our long-held fantasy of a fuel-economy focused family hybrid vehicle might finally be a reality soon, thanks to an unexpected automaker. And speaking of fantasies, check out what magic tricks our friends in the Department of Transportation are up to—they can make a million hybrids disappear!
Enjoy your August,
Scott Nathanson
UCS National Field Organizer &
HybridCenter.org Administrator
In this issue:
Yes my friends, it’s been a long time coming. Almost two years now since we sent a powerful statement to Toyota asking them to bring their hybrid minivan to America. For those of you like me with growing families, parents planning on moving to town, and other needs demanding that elusive seven-passenger vehicle with good fuel economy, it looks like relief may really be on the way.
Two different companies may be on the short-track toward bringing the minivan to America. The first is Toyota. Business Week notes in an article featuring Honda’s hybrids that Toyota has a US-marketed hybrid minivan in its sights by late 2010. Canada.com reinforces that, though they say it will be a “Sierra” and I think they meant “Sienna.” However you cut it, it’s a fairly solid indicator that the minivan is actually still in the queue at Toyota.
 More immediately, however, things are looking up for the introduction of a Dodge Grand Caravan hybrid, likely produced up in Windsor, Ontario. Of course, as you can see in this Washington Times article, the minivan is not exactly setting the world on fire sales-wise, even with the current demise of the SUV. Part of it may be the fact that there is simply not enough of a fuel economy boost from today’s minivans, the best of which are in the low-20s for mpg. The emergence of the crossover market, such as the Ford Edge and the Mazda CX-9, has also “styled” out the current crop of minivans.
So why is Chrysler going to move ahead with a Grand Caravan hybrid? Mike Omotoso, director of powertrain forecasting for J.D. Power in Detroit sums it up in one word (or acronym)—CAFE. He notes that Chrysler is under pressure to bring fuel efficient vehicles to market in order to meet the new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
Yes, the new fuel economy laws are already starting to do what we’ve wanted for so long—force the auto industry to start building more fuel-efficient models in more size classes. To me, this is one of the most solid pieces of real-world evidence about how strong standards work in tandem with overall demand to push the market forward.
The open question will of course be whether the Chrysler or Toyota hybrid minivans will be more like the current Highlander Hybrid SUV—which gets fairly solid, though not game-changing mid-20s mileage—or more like the Estima Hybrid—netting compact-level fuel economy in a seven-passenger vehicle. As gas prices stay high and consumer downsizing remains a trend, both companies should think long and hard about whether they merely want to satisfy fuel economy requirements, or seek to redefine a family market niche that still has real potential.
- Honda Halves Hybrid Cost: Many people are anxiously awaiting Honda’s first dedicated hybrid model to see if someone can finally challenge the Prius for the top spot in the hybrid market. It seems that Honda has something going for it already, as Honda Executive Vice President Koichi Kondo said that the hybrid unit inside it will cost about half as much to make as the current Civic system. Reports say that the savings come from a simplified architecture, lower weight, and a smaller overall size. The hybrid system, or Integrated Motor Assist (IMA), is already being developed for the new car, which is itself on target for release in early 2009 according to Honda. More on this story at the Hybrid News Center.
 Startup Making Plug-In Pickups: A University of Illinois team is spinning off a hybrid retrofit system it has created into a startup company, promising that it can retrofit a standard Ford F-150 pickup into a plug-in hybrid netting 41mpg (a 2WD F-150 gets an estimated 16mpg—so that’s not chicken feed). As always, the cost (an estimated $60k to date) is a key stumbling block, but it does bring up an interesting point about the potential to do fuel economy retrofits for existing big, gas-guzzling vehicles – companies like this one might just create a whole new market. Find more on this and other plug-in hybrid news over at the Hybrid News Center.
- Ford Boosts Escape Hybrid Fuel Economy Again: Give credit where credit is due, Ford managed to bump up the fuel economy of the Escape/Mariner Hybrid for a second model year running. Yes, it’s only a single mile-per-gallon (34 city/31 highway), but the fact that they continue to go up each year without a total redesign is a testament to how innovative the engineers at Ford can be when they’re given the mandate to focus on fuel economy. They also tweaked their regenerative breaking system to be a little smoother with the conventional breaks, which is supposed to give an overall better ride. More over at the Hybrid News Center.
Last month we criticized the Department of Transportation (DOT) for using gas price estimates that project we will be paying between $2.25 and $2.60 per gallon over the next 20 years. Using these laughable estimates in effect creates a loophole that will allow automakers to shave three to four miles per gallon off of their fuel economy requirements over the next decade.
 If the gas price assumptions weren’t unrealistic enough, the DOT now seems to be playing some interesting games with hybrids as well. In its draft fuel economy rule, the DOT has to predict when advanced technologies will hit the market—a basic assumption to help them determine how fast and far the fuel economy standards can climb over time. All hybrid technologies—including the 2-mode and power-split “full” hybrid systems (such as the Prius, Escape Hybrid, and Tahoe Hybrid)—are assumed not to appear until 2014. Indeed, even simple start/stop-based systems (a.k.a. idle-off technology, as seen in the Saturn Green Line Vue) are evidently still six years away from hitting the road. So if you’re like me and driving one of the million-plus hybrids already sold in America, congratulations, you’re driving the car of the future…today!
And it doesn’t end there. Not only do they assume that the Toyota Prius, the ninth best selling car in America, does not exist, there are also assumptions in the draft DOT plan about how fast or slow these technologies will be adopted by the automakers. The draft rule assumes that hybrid technologies would see an adoption rate of 3 percent, meaning it will take roughly 33 years for hybrid technology to become ubiquitous. Given advances in hybrid technology, and the commitments not only of Honda and Toyota, but the domestic automakers as well, to increase their hybrid offerings, there is simply no valid reason to assume such slow adoption rates.
The interpretation becomes yet more absurd upon closer inspection as the rule applies the same phase-in limits to all facets of hybrid technologies, from mild start-stop hybrids to full plug-in hybrids alike. In contrast, an Environmental Protection Agency technical report, upon which the DOT relied when making their rule, essentially noted how easy idle-off technology would be to integrate, saying, “their low cost and easy adaptability to existing powertrains and platforms can make them attractive for some applications.”
I think it’s fair to say that with more than 10 years of experience from leading manufacturers, hybrids can no longer be considered niche technology. Our Setting the Standard report on the potential of existing technologies to increase fuel economy under the new CAFE standards noted that with a modest 25 percent hybrid market share in 2020, a cost-effective fleet average fuel economy of 42 mpg could be achieved. And, if the focus of the hybrid technology is on miles rather than muscle, the average could push even higher. UCS (among numerous other groups and market analysts) expects significant growth in the hybrid market over the coming years.
If you’d like to read our full list of comments and suggestions on the draft rule, you can find them here (pdf). And if you’re one of the more than 6,000 people who helped bolster our technical comments with your real-world letters during the public comment period on this rule—THANK YOU!
We’re always looking for ways to keep our members engaged, and the gaping holes in the DOT’s CAFE rule has already generated some great activity. On August 4, the National Highway Transit Safety Administration (NHTSA—the fuel economy regulators at DOT) is holding a hearing in Washington, D.C. on the environmental impact of the CAFE rule.
This is no small thing. This is the first time a hearing on an environmental impact statement that covers global warming pollution has been held! And if accurate gas prices are used to implement the new CAFE rule, the requirements would reduce global warming pollution as much as taking about 10 million cars off the road.
I’m happy to say that more than a dozen UCS and DCN activists in-and-around the D.C. area volunteered to come and speak their minds about this issue. Of interest to DCN members might be some of the tips we gave to our intrepid members about making comments at a public hearing. There are some good links in here to more substantive details on the rule:
What should I expect at the NHTSA hearing?
You should remember that this hearing is not directly on gas prices and oil security. This is on the environmental impact of the new CAFE rule. Members of NHTSA orchestrating the session may attempt to push anyone speaking to talk directly about the environmental impact. So make sure you are prepared to speak in those terms, and if challenged, insist that you be granted your time to talk about the connection between the strongest possible CAFE rule having the strongest environmental impact.
How long should I speak?
You will have about five minutes to speak, but do not feel compelled to take the whole time. Your willingness to attend this event and your general sentiment are, in themselves, a major statement.
What should I say?
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Tell them about yourself. Name and where you are from. How long you traveled to be at the hearing. About your family and community.
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Tell them why you are here. Do you have specific concerns about the impact of global warming pollution from our nation’s automobiles? Are you frustrated with a lack of fuel-efficient choices hampering your ability to reduce your carbon footprint and pain at the pump? Have you purchased a more fuel-efficient vehicle and want to make sure that strong standards are in place to help encourage others to make the same choice?
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Tell them what they need to do. Despite a recent drop, gas prices are still hovering at around $4.00 a gallon. There is no reason why NHTSA should be continuing to project gas prices at around $2.50 a gallon over the coming decades. NHTSA should use both realistic gas prices to assess the benefits of increasing fuel efficiency, and a more realistic view of market penetration for hybrid vehicles given that automakers cannot produce them fast enough to meet current demand. Together, these fixes would help maximize the potential of the fuel economy standards passed by Congress and ensure it makes a significant contribution to overall global warming pollution reduction.
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Tell them what they should not do. Continue business as usual. As Americans become more desperate for any solution to help reduce their pain at the pump, environmentally destructive ideas such as expanded off-shore oil drilling have taken on added interest. The urgency to maximize the value of our fuel economy laws have therefore taken on an added environmental importance, not only to maximize the reduction of emissions from the automobiles themselves, but to minimize the rationale for expanding environmentally destructive activities like marine oil exploration and drilling in America’s wildlife refuges.
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Use your own words. Feel free to use any of what we have listed above in your testimony, but how you say it should be personal to you and your interests.
What does UCS think of all this?
Here are some resources that can give you more details on our analysis of NHTSA’s fuel economy rule.
We’ll follow up with those who are able to come and testify, and give you their stories in next month's newsletter.
Who’s Got Hybrids Now?
Yes, that old red-herring to reduce gas prices—drilling in Alaskan wildlife preserves—has raised its ugly head once again. Luckily, a number of Alaskans know a real solution to our oil dependence and energy prices. Here are some of our folks from the Last Frontier State giving a little lesson in basic gas economics—try using less…
 James Baker from Anchorage, AK says he’s an “old motorhead at heart.” He says that, “I could have just as easily bought a Mustang GT. However, how many cars can you buy that are the best in the world at what they do for only $20,000?”
 Here’s Marsha Buck from Juneau, AK and her Gen. 1 Prius. She’s an early adopter, getting her hybrid before folks up there could service it. For winter weather, she says, “All I have added is a trickle charger for the winter weeks when I go south to visit grandchildren.” At least she’s doing all she can to preserve that glacier sitting behind her.
 Here’s Nancy Moore from Palmer, AK. She has something to say to the cold-weather hybrid nay sayers. She notes that, “the Prius performs beautifully in the winter. Of course the mileage goes down when it is cold but the car drives well and performs well on the snow and ice.”
Alaska is only one of many states with DCN members who "get it." So go check them out yourself. And if you own a hybrid, or know someone who does, please ask them to join our “Who’s Got Hybrids?” family here.
That’s it for this issue. Safe and efficient travels if you’re taking an August road trip. I’ll let you know if I beat that 51.5 mpg record on my vacation.
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