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Hi everybody, I’m back from vacation and ready to roll. Before we talk clean car standards, GM’s Volt, hybrids on the horizon, and meet our new "Who’s Got Hybrids?" members, I’ve got to quickly weigh in on something I mention in this month’s DCN Newsbytes: A recent front page story in the Washington Post claims that hybrids and Electric Vehicles pose a pedestrian risk because they’re too quiet.
Seems like an issue with some merit. Indeed, my wife has filled up our Prius a couple of times, not realizing she still has the car on because it’s in idle-off mode. I’d personally vote against a fake combustion engine noise, especially since someone had the brilliant idea of using the flying car noise from Blade Runner! We may not have the flying car yet, but we can at least have its cool sound from one of the greatest sci-fi films of all time.
But I digress. Let’s get to the action.
Scott Nathanson
UCS National Field Organizer &
HybridCenter.org Administrator
In this issue:
The next step toward cleaner cars drove into the spotlight last week, as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Department of Transportation (DOT) released their proposed rule for implementing the new national clean car standards. The new standards would boost the fleetwide fuel economy of new vehicles sold in the United States to roughly 34 miles per gallon by model year 2016, and set the first national tailpipe heat-trapping emissions standard for vehicles at 250 grams per mile—nearly 30 percent less than the emissions produced by today's average new vehicle.
 That’s heady stuff, but clearly well worth celebrating just like our old colleague Eli Hopson did during the White House signing ceremony back in May (though I’m still jealous he got to go and I didn’t). Senior vehicles engineer Jim Kliesch crunched the numbers and found that the new standards would:
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reduce U.S. oil consumption by about 1.3 million barrels per day by 2020, nearly as much as we currently import from Saudi Arabia;
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cut global warming emissions by 217 million metric tons in 2020, the equivalent of taking nearly 32 million of today's cars and light trucks off the road that year; and
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save drivers $26 billion in 2020 based on a gas price of $2.25 per gallon, even after they pay the cost of vehicle technology improvements. (If gas prices spike to $4 a gallon again, the new standards would save drivers $60 billion in 2020.)
As we know from decades of stagnation on national fuel economy, we need to keep an eye on the fine print of any plan. Significant past loopholes, such as allowing automakers to reclassify cars as "light trucks" to decrease fuel economy requirements and incorporating weight thresholds that allowed gas guzzlers like the Hummer to evade all fuel economy regulations, helped to create the environmental and economic predicament the auto industry currently finds itself in.
And there are some loopholes in the EPA/DOT proposal worth mentioning. The proposal includes “flexibility” mechanisms that the industry has used in the past to avoid meeting projected standards. Meanwhile, another provision could underestimate the heat-trapping emissions produced by certain vehicle technologies, including "zero-emission" vehicle technologies such as plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles. The proposed rules, for example, do not count heat-trapping emissions associated with generating electricity to charge those vehicles. For more on all this, you can check out our press release.
In October we’ll have our action alert up on this site so you can send in your own comments on the plan to the EPA and DOT. We’ll really need your help to press for the strongest, most loophole-free final rule.
 I have no doubt you’d already heard the news I alluded to in my August email about GM announcing that its Volt plug-in hybrid will get 230 mpg. GM’s commitment to bringing the Volt to market is commendable, but this assertion leaves me scratching my head.
First, let’s let a little air out of the tires here. As you might expect, that giant flashing 230 is for city driving, and it hasn’t been confirmed by the EPA, which has devised a special fuel economy testing regime for plug-in vehicles. GM admits only that the highway number will be “significantly lower.”
Next, as our research director David Friedman noted, “Your mileage may vary means more to the owner of a plug-in than any other car on the market.” For example, if you drive the Volt 20 miles on electric power only, your mpg is infinite. But if you drive 20 miles using gasoline, you’re talking about fuel economy in the 30s. That makes the difference between my wife’s 43 mpg highway commute, and my 48 mpg city commute in our Prius look miniscule.
And let’s not forget that “mpg” in this context is only looking at the amount of gasoline consumed. If you, like me and many others, are concerned about the vehicle’s CO2 emissions, or the amount of money you’ll need to spend to fuel it, the vehicle’s mpg is literally only part of the equation.
My main problem with what GM is doing is that it is a “tried and failed” effort to pump up the fuel economy numbers of hybrids to their extreme. Remember that before the EPA revised their fuel economy tests in 2007, the Prius was estimated to get 60 mpg combined. The initial “wow” over that number was quickly replaced by a lot of disgruntlement when most drivers ended up getting mid-40s for fuel economy. Those estimates helped to create and perpetuate a myth that hybrid technology “had no clothes” and was just more greenwashing by the automakers.
More accurate fuel economy estimates helped consumers see what hybrids could really do for them, and the “hybrid myth” articles have died down significantly since then. Toyota has truly broken the 50 mpg barrier with the Gen. 3 Prius, Honda has broken the $20,000 price barrier for a car that gets 40 mpg combined with its Insight, and Ford has brought the Fusion Hybrid sedan to nearly 40 mpg. Impressive, expanding, and now, mainstream.
The 230 mpg spin on the Volt will only put plug-in hybrids in the same place hybrids were in before the EPA revised their tests: people will have exaggerated expectations of a silver-bullet technology that then will meet the reality of the American driver. Inevitably, people will be disappointed. So when the Volt hits the road, rather than being acknowledged as an impressive next step for hybrid technology, it will be perceived as a technology that couldn’t deliver on its promise.
GM needs to think carefully about how it promotes the Volt. It has real potential to be at the forefront of a fuel efficient fleet that, quoting David again, comes primarily from, “the boring stuff: more efficient engines, better transmissions, and conventional hybrids.” Or it can be seen as the 230 mpg mirage. There’s history—recent history—to be learned from here. I just hope GM takes advantage of it. The early indicators aren’t exactly encouraging.
- Toyota Looking for a Sales Blitz: Toyota is gearing up for an aggressive, one billion dollar marketing and advertising plan for the rest of 2009. The plan includes consumer and dealer incentives, subsidized loan and lease rates, and a media campaign to lure in consumers. In the announcement, Toyota also said they will expand its line of hybrid models under the Prius name, but failed to say when they will be introduced. The new hybrids would be both smaller and larger than the Prius. More over at the Hybrid News Center.
 Nissan Gives Some Noise to Electric Cars: Several advocacy groups have gone to Congress with the request that automakers add some noise to hybrid and electric vehicles. These cars run almost silently and possibly pose a safety threat to the blind, pedestrians, and cyclists. Nissan is having a bit of fun with this, and is looking to give its electric car, the Leaf, a ‘beautiful and futuristic’ sound (I’m still rooting for Blade Runner flying cars, though). The noise would turn off once the car hits 12 miles per hour, when they believe tire noise is sufficient to warn of the vehicle’s presence. Read more at the Hybrid News Center.
- Lithium Ion Batteries Are Hitting the Market: Several automakers recently announced they are working to bring plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles to market in the next several years. Almost all companies are using the lithium ion battery to power the vehicle for an extended range. The one company not using this type of battery is the powerhouse of the hybrid market—Toyota. Despite positive testing of lithium technology for both safety and performance, Toyota believes the associated cost of the battery remains too high. Chevy and Nissan appear to be heading to the electric car market before anyone else, while BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, and other automakers will continue to develop the battery technology in hopes of bringing lower-cost and higher performing electric cars to consumers. More on this story at the Hybrid News Center.
One of my favorite features of the HybridCenter is our Hybrid Timeline. The timeline tells the story of hybrids—from the first introduction of the Prius in Japan in 1997, to today where there are 27 different hybrid models on the road in the United States, to the future where almost all automakers are making hybrids.
I go back to the Hybrid Timeline now and again to get a good overview about how the hybrid market is progressing. A quick glance shows just how much the hybrid market has developed, in both the sheer number of hybrids available and in the variety of class sizes.
Of course, the most compelling part of the story is looking to what’s yet to come, and what automakers have on the drawing board. Thanks to the determined effort of our HybridCenter intern Bharat Aurora and Program Assistant Leah Parker, the timeline is fully up-to-date, including our “Hybrids on the Horizon” section.
If automakers stick to their announced production plans, 2010 will bring more than a dozen new hybrid models to the roads by 2013. Let’s take a quick look at some of the vehicles that are coming ‘round the bend:
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 Small Hybrids from Honda: Honda is pushing forward with plans for a Fit Hybrid and the CR-Z. The conventional Fit already gets an impressive combined fuel economy of 31 mpg, and is, surprisingly to me, actually larger than the Gen. 2 Insight. Given the larger passenger and cargo room, I wonder what is going to happen if the Fit Hybrid ends up at or above the Insight’s fuel economy number. To beef up its dedicated hybrid model selection, Honda has announced it will begin production of the CR-Z in 2010. The CR-Z will be a small, two-seater, kind of a sportier version of the Gen. 1 Insight. Given its lighter weight than the Fit, Honda can allow for a bit more power while still maintaining a high fuel economy rating. -
 Germans Look to Muscle-Up: BMW has two hybrids coming out in 2010, both with a focus on power rather than fuel economy. The Active Hybrid 7 and the Active Hybrid X6 both feature a twin-turbo V8 engine that zooms to 60 mph in 4.8 seconds and 5.4 seconds, respectively. The Active Hybrid 7 is a mild hybrid that has to use fuel at all times to power the car. The hybrid system will give the Active Hybrid 7 a meager 15 percent fuel economy improvement. The X6, is BMW’s first full hybrid vehicle(using the GM/Daimler/Chrysler/BMW designed two-mode system) and can run on electric power alone up to 37 miles per hour. But still, the X6 only gets a 20 percent improvement in fuel economy. Want to know if it’s a muscle hybrid? Well, BMW is already touting the X6 Hybrid as the most powerful hybrid on the road. Along with BMW, Mercedes and Porsche are working on their own powerful hybrid models—though at least Mercedes is using a six-cylinder engine and not a V8. I’m going to be very curious to see the sales stats of these hybrids as stacked up with the 2010 Lexus HS 250h, the first dedicated Lexus hybrid that gets an impressive 35 mpg while being the lowest priced Lexus model. -
 Is it America’s Time to Shine?: Ford was the first American automaker to enter the hybrid market, when in 2004 it released the Ford Escape Hybrid. Mercury followed a year later with the Mariner Hybrid. Since then, American automakers have produced mainly muscle hybrids, with GM and Chrysler attaching the two-mode system to gas-thirsty V8 engines. Ford has brought some thrift back to American hybrids, with the midsized Ford Fusion Hybrid and Mercury Milan Hybrid sedans topping the Camry Hybrid with a combined fuel economy of 39 mpg. The horizon for American hybrids is a bit more cloudy. The Dodge Ram Hybrid pickup looks to mimic the Silverado Hybrid’s performance. There’s an unnamed Buick Crossover Hybrid that looks promising, as it is going to inherit the hybrid system originally going into the full hybrid Vue before GM sold Saturn. It also looks like GM is going to really try to bump up its current hollow-hybrid system with real battery capacity to create a real Chevy Malibu Hybrid starting in 2011.
Looking at the timeline, the hybrid story gets more complicated, yet more promising, for consumers. Automakers have been able to build more efficient hybrids and the availability of lower-cost hybrids seems to be on the uptick. But some automakers seem determined not to learn the lesson put before them by the Honda Accord’s demise, and the fact that Toyota purposely dropped the term “performance hybrid” from its marketing lexicon. Given that among new car buyers, fuel economy is now the number one consideration according to a recent Consumer Reports survey, I hope that all the automakers will make some adjustments to their current timelines to give us even more fuel-efficient hybrid choices. Check out the timeline to get the full picture.
Who’s Got Hybrids Now ?
Our additions this month to the Hybrid Center show just how much families enjoy driving the Prius—many of them own more than one! Remember that we need your help finding new models, new testimonials, and new fun pictures, so send your hybrid-owning friends to join our “Who’s Got Hybrids?” family.
 Carol Roberts of Costa Mesa, CA has embraced the green lifestyle. She drives a Prius, as do her son, and his girlfriend!
 Adam Kinser of Chapmanville, WV is very happy with his Toyota Prius. He enjoys figuring out how fast it can go: 0-60 in 9 seconds and 0-100 in 23 seconds! He’s topped out his Prius at 108 mph and still manages to average 55 mpg.
 Dwayne Kinser, also of Chapmanville, WV and Adam’s father, couldn’t be happier with his 2009 Toyota Prius. He averages 60 mpg (and perhaps will give his son some advice on how to increase his average mileage). Dwayne plans to buy his other son a Prius as well!
Okay, I’m off to pop in my DVD of the original cut of Blade Runner (I seem to be the only guy left who likes the original with its film noir voiceovers), and dream of a cool-sounding hybrid future. Until next month…
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