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As 2006 winds down, I hope you are enjoying your holiday season. As my colleague Eli noted in last month’s issue, 2007 promises to be an active, if complex year, for those of us who want to see policies passed that will help bring more hybrids and other fuel-efficient vehicles onto the market. But let’s take a look at how the year’s wrapping up first, and take a quick look back at what we’ve done together in our inaugural year.
Enjoy.
Scott Nathanson
UCS National Field Organizer &
HybridCenter.org Administrator
In this issue:
 Well, the change is now official—as expected, the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) new estimate for the Prius' city Miles Per Gallon is going to drop beginning in model year 2008. Unfortunately, some people are taking this opportunity to do an "I told you so" dance about hybrid technology, implying that perhaps hybrids really aren't such a good environmental choice.
I asked Don MacKenzie, our Clean Vehicles Engineer who has done a tremendous amount of work and analysis on this subject, to weigh in on the debate and provide a bit of clarity before the hybrid technology nay-sayers get too smug. Here’s what he had to say:
Here’s how I remember it: Consumers complained that they were not getting 60 MPG in their new priuses. Toyota said that driving habits and conditions would influence MPG, and that many consumers could expect to get less than the rated fuel economy. They also pointed out that this was true not only for their hybrids, but for their other vehicles as well.
I did some analysis of the numbers during the EPA's rule development and if people are concerned about saving money, it is interesting to note that your savings from buying a hybrid may, in many cases, work out about the same using the new numbers.
Think about an average vehicle that gets 25 MPG. It would cost you, say, $1,200 per year in gas to fill up your tank. If the new fuel economy estimate on that vehicle is 10 percent lower, then your new fuel cost estimate is $1,333 for the same amount of gas.
Now look at a hybrid that was supposed to get 55 MPG (the actual combined rating on the Prius under the old system). You would have expected the fuel bill to be $545. Now if it actually gets 44 MPG, you would expect the fuel bill to be $682.
Under the old rules, you expected an annual fuel savings of $655 for the Prius vs. the average car. Under the new rules, your expected savings is $651—basically the same.
It's good to get accurate information so you know what you're getting—which is why we consider the EPA’s new calculation procedures to be a good interim step on the road to more reliable MPG testing. And with good use of hybrid technology, you'll still be getting the most efficient vehicles on the market today. So the sky is not falling, and the emperor still has a pretty slick set of duds.
Thanks Don. Hope all of you find this helpful as well. Oh, and I don’t know about any of you other Prius owners out there, but I find I’m getting about 45 MPG city, 50 MPG highway, so the new estimates seem to be about right with my own personal experience.
Thought it might be fun to take a look at a few Driving Change Network members who have their own winter wonderland pictures on our “Who’s Got Hybrids?” feature. Head over to the full feature to find more winter wonderland pics (good way to find out more information on hybrids and winter weather). Who says hybrids can’t handle a little snow? Enjoy!
Pete Schubert - Durham, NC - Toyota Prius Gen. 1
Jen Cramer - Basalt, CO - Toyota Prius Gen. 2
Michael Beres - Free Soil, MI - Honda Civic Hybrid Gen. 1
Monica Albe - Alameda, CA - Honda Civic Hybrid Gen. 1
- Hybrid Sales Stats and Projections: Despite a sales slip from August-October of this year, U.S. hybrid sales increased an overall 13.8 percent during the period from November 2005 to 2006. For November 2006, hybrid vehicles accounted for 1.52 percent of the new car market. In other news, a study by the Freedonia Group projects that the worldwide demand for hybrids will reach nearly 8 million by 2020, with the hybrid market remaining the strongest in the U.S., followed by Europe and Japan. The report also forecasts strong future hybrid demand in China and South Korea due to local hybrid production and government interest in addressing vehicle emissions. For more information, check out the Hybrid News Center.
- More Nissan News: This month, the Nissan Motor Company unveiled the Nissan Green Program 2010, its new midterm environmental action plan for reducing carbon and exhaust emission and increasing recycling efforts. The program includes plans to both produce their own hybrid drive for production in 2010, but also to accelerate plugin hybrid development. Meanwhile Nissan executives continue to bash hybrid technology as a poor, unprofitable investment. For more on this confusing state of affairs, see our Hybridblog.
- EIA Forecasts U.S. Energy Trends: Environmental improvements in the U.S. vehicle fleet may have little effect on reducing U.S. dependence on foreign energy and greenhouse gas pollution given the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest forecast of U.S. energy trends through 2030. The EIA predicts sustained dominance in energy derived from coal, natural gas, and oil despite interests in new nuclear power generation and rapid projected growth in the renewable energy sector, particular for biofuels. For more information, visit the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 webpage.
It’s been an eventful year for both the HybridCenter's Driving Change Network and the hybrid vehicle market.
 With the help of Bill Nye the Science Guy, we launched the Driving Change Network last spring as part of our HybridCenter Earth Day Challenge. Over 3,000 people have submitted testimonials for our “Who’s Got Hybrids?” feature to date. (I’m not going to single out those of you who I still need pictures from, you know who you are…) While “Who’s Got Hybrids?” helped HybridCenter really become a “one-stop-shop” for people looking for the complete hybrid picture, we had something larger in mind for the DCN. We saw this new network as an opportunity to inform, encourage, and connect hybrid car owners and clean vehicle enthusiasts from across the country, leveraging your standing and interest. Since its launch, the DCN has grown to include over 4,000 hybrid owners and clean vehicle enthusiasts.
While I think we’ve had some fun with our scavenger hunts and naming contests, and I have really enjoyed our exchanges on everything from hybrid MPG and weather, to maxing out mileage on muscle hybrids—I’ve been most excited to see that we’re stating to make an impact on hybrid policy.
Our Washington Representative Eli Hopson came into my office a few days ago and told me that he’d heard from one representative’s office in Washington D.C. that they’d received a “pocket of letters” about the hybrid tax credit cap from constituents. His staff called us to see how they could be helpful! We’ll be looking to get all of you more involved taking action on this issue in 2007.
We’ve also gotten our media “sea legs” this year with our Rapid Response Letter to the Editor initiative, getting our first LTEs published in August and October. We are going to call on you far more in 2007 since we’ve clearly seen the power of LTEs in helping to educate the public and advocate for sound vehicles policy.
With your help, this was a year of honors for HybridCenter. We won two major online awards: the Webby, for “Best Guides/Ratings/Reviews” by the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences, and a Grand Award in the 18th annual Awards for Publication Excellence (APEX). In 2007, we will continue to provide DCN members and HybridCenter visitors with the latest information on a range of hybrid and clean vehicle technology issues through the DCN newsletter, Up the MPG, and HybridCenter features like “Who’s Got Hybrids?” And don’t forget that Hybrid Scorecard we’ve been hinting about—it’s coming in January…I promise!
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New hybrids enter the market and the Honda Insight says goodbye: There was a lot of excitement and criticism this year surrounding the introduction of new “full” and “muscle” hybrids, including the Toyota Camry, Lexus GS 400h, and of course, another GM entry into the hollow hybrid category—the Saturn Greenline Vue. Also this year, to the dismay of many hybrid enthusiasts, Honda ended production of its 60 MPG EPA-rated (city) Insight, the first hybrid sold in the United States. Rumor has it that the Insight’s drivetrain may be going into their Fit subcompact line.
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New hybrid incentives: The big news in 2006 was that Toyota reached the 60,000-unit federal tax credit cap, setting off the eventual elimination of the hybrid tax credit for qualified Toyota and Lexus vehicles. Also this year, many state and local governments discussed and adopted proposals for hybrid perks, including the expansion of the hybrid High Occupancy Vehicle exemption in California and the continuance of Pennsylvania’s hybrid rebate program. Insurance companies and employers like Bank of America and Farmer’s Insurance also announced new perks for hybrid and clean vehicle owners in 2006. Check out the year-end updates we’ve made (including Kentucky getting a jump-start on 2007) in our hybrid incentives section.
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More airtime for hybrids: This year, there was a marked increase in consumer and automaker interest in hybrid vehicles in response to concerns about gasoline price volatility, U.S. energy security, and greenhouse gas emissions. Aside from Ford’s decision to abandon its hybrid vehicle production promise, Nissan announced plans to develop an original hybrid system and GM talked-up plans for a 70 MPG plug-in hybrid. Is this the beginning of real changes for the advanced vehicle market? Only time will tell, and, of course, the work we do as consumers and advocates can help make the difference.
So, time now to look ahead. But let’s take a pause for a week or two and enjoy the holidays. Safe travels to all of you heading to family and friends—be it by plane, train, or hybrid. Rest up, because things may well heat up early for us in the new year!
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